Drones attacking Russia
Drones are now attacking Russia too, how did that influence your stay? Van der Zweerde didn’t experience any direct signs of the war, there were no alarms or anything. The effects seem marginal, people are enjoying life. But prices have risen, so life must have become a lot more expensive. Also, you see bill boards inviting people to join the army everywhere. If you do so, you receive the equivalent of some 25.000 euros, which is a lot, especially for people in rural areas.
Happy with Trump
It seems the Kremlin is quite happy with Trump as president? Van der Zweerde confirmed this: “They have good reasons, too: he has put Russia at the table as a legitimate party in the negotiations, instead of being an outcast, the devil. Also, both Trump and Putin don’t make any distinction between politics and economics. Trump doesn’t care if he is buying from Ukraine or Russia, he just wants to have the rare earth metals. Immediately after the 2022 invasion, Elon Musk predicted that Russia would get the parts of Ukraine that it wants to have. From time to time the world is redivided by the big powers, the narrative runs, and this is what will happen now.”
The big guys
In the media, Van der Zweerde continued, Trump is being portrayed as the serious counterpart to Putin. They barely mention that two other parties are not at the table: Ukraine and the EU. Zelensky is portrayed at someone without legitimacy, he is not taken seriously. The EU is hesitant,doesn’t know what to do, doesn't have a story. At the level of ideology, the picture is that of the big guys settling conflicts and the others don’t really matter.
A buffer zone
What does Putin want in the negotiations?, Leijenhorst asked. From the beginning, Van der Zweerde explains, the foreign policy of the Kremlin fits a long tradition: to avoid encirclement and to free access to the world’s sees. They are not happy with Turkey’s NATO membership and they don’t want Ukraine and other neighboring countries to join. It is a Russian tradition to want to have buffer zones around you. Their aim at this point is a) to expand Russia’s sphere of influence, and b) re-integrate as much of the former Soviet space as possible.
How to end the conflict?
Van der Zweerde’s hunch is that the Russian government is more interested in a frozen conflict than in a real solution. They have been in armed conflict almost since 1990 – although we in the West usually don’t realize this. There will be some kind of ceasefire, and then the focus of the Kremlin might turn East. Probably not the West, because the heavy rhetoric that is coming from NATO right now has warned the Russian government. They won’t seek an outright war with Nato-countries. At the same time, to have an external enemy is the best way to manage your domestic politics and oppress opposition – this of course applies to any country.