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Who pays the price?

Bohn pointed out that Trump’s approach seemed arbitrary. There seems to be no consistent formula, and the justification often defies economic logic. “I have no understanding why they’re doing this,” he remarked, highlighting that imports like steel are still necessary for the U.S. economy, regardless of price increases. Van der Kamp-Alons added that it won’t be other countries footing the bill. The real burden falls on U.S. companies importing goods—and ultimately, on American consumers. Even if imports decrease, the price increases will be baked into sales prices. Other countries may suffer from reduced exports, but they don’t directly pay tariffs.

So why do it? Trump’s motivation, Van der Kamp-Alons suggested, is rooted in a desire to rebalance trade. The U.S. imports more than it exports, and Trump saw this as proof that the country was being taken advantage of by foreign countries. At the same time, Trump seems to ignore that in service sectors like banking, the U.S. actually runs a surplus. On the other hand, there’s speculation that tariffs are less about economics and more about leverage—an aggressive way to bring trading partners to the negotiating table. Case in point: using tariffs in talks with Mexico not only about trade but immigration.

Is it even legal?

“Is it even legal what Trump is doing?” Tönissen asked. Van der Kamp-Alons made it clear: Trump’s tariff actions violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. Two core principles are at stake. First, fixed Tariffs: Changes should go through multilateral negotiation, and this hasn’t happened. Trump basically applied them overnight. The second one is the most-favoured nation clause: Trade advantages given to one member must be extended to all. This has neither happened, as Trump applies different tariffs to different countries, in a seemingly random manner. 

However, the WTO’s ability to enforce rules is a legal dead end—largely because the U.S. has blocked new appointments to WTO’s appellate body. What’s more, it will take way to long—over a year—to have any effect.  

Short-term instability, long-term uncertainty

Trump’s tariff strategy creates a climate of uncertainty. Recently, he abruptly reduced some tariffs after raising them—without explanation. The inconsistency has drawn criticism, also from Republicans. Bohn highlighted the long-term dilemma: even if tariffs push some manufacturing back to the U.S., it’s not guaranteed to succeed. They should also wonder, why are American firms importing more than they are exporting in the first place? Often because they aren’t globally competitive. Until that changes, tariffs may hurt more than they help. Meanwhile, Van der Kamp-Alons emphasized the short-term instability. With tariffs in place on goods like cars and steel, retaliatory moves from the EU have followed. This tit-for-tat can spiral into trade wars that hurt all parties involved.

Trump used the so-called Emergency Economic Powers Act to bypass Congress and impose these tariffs. While many in Congress want to rein in this possibility, it requires a majority vote—something not easy to achieve. This legal loophole fuels uncertainty in both political and economic spheres, raising fears of a global recession. 

One of Trump’s most dramatic tariff escalations was against China, with rates jumping from 10% to a staggering 125%. Why specifically China? “Because it fits Trump’s personality,” Bohn suggested. He ridiculed previous presidents who sought diplomatic engagement with China. Meanwhile, Van der Kamp-Alons pointed out that Trump might be attempting to boycott the power of China, given the U.S. “pivot to Asia” of these earlier presidents. 

Political ramifications

While tariffs were applied to most countries, others like North Korea, Russia, and Cuba were spared. This raises a fundamental question: Is the U.S. still our friend? Bohn warned of lasting political damage: “The U.S. is losing trust in the rest of the world drastically.” Long-standing stereotypes of American imperialism are being reinforced, potentially weakening international alliances.

And the backlash could hit home. The EU continues to consider retaliatory tariffs on specific goods—not across the board, like Trump Does. For instance, by applying tariffs to soybeans, which are grown mainly in Trump-supporting regions, they hope to undermine Trump’s domestic political base. Meanwhile, European countries are split on how to respond. France and Germany push for tougher retaliation, while Ireland and Italy proceed more cautiously, wary of harming their own economic interests.

There are signs of internal pressure building. Major tech companies have criticized the tariffs, especially as stock markets tumbled. Since many American pensions are tied to the stock market, this isn't just about trade; it's about long-term financial security for ordinary Americans. Bohn also flagged the situation in Northern Ireland: due to Brexit agreements, Northern Ireland is still treated as part of the EU’s trading area, causing additional confusion and tension with the UK.

Madness or method?

Whether madness or method, Trump’s tariff strategy has exposed vulnerabilities in the global trade system, shaken alliances, and sparked economic uncertainty. As Van der Kamp-Alons and Bohn noted throughout the event, the long-term consequences—economic, legal, and political—are still unfolding. 

Announcement

‘Our country has been robbed, deposed, raped and looted by countries near and far, both friend and foe. This is Liberation Day.’ With these words, president Trump announced the import tariffs he imposed on almost the entire world. What does Trump want to achieve with this trade war, and is it realistic that he will succeed? What will the consequences be for European citizens? Come and listen to political scientist Gerry van der Kamp-Alons and political economist Frank Bohn and ask your own questions too! 

A way out?

With import tariffs varying from 10-54%, the world has reacted with shock and stock markets have plummeted. The EU, burdened with a 20% tariff, wants to talk to president Trump. China plans to hit back with 34% import tariffs on American products. According to Trump, the import tariffs are the only way to solve America’s trade deficit. But some scholars argue that the real reason for this decision is not economic gain but forcing loyalty from the international business community. How will the tariffs affect us? Are they in line with WTO agreements at all? Is there still a way out? And if not, what then? 

Strain on the US economy

At the same time, Trump is taking a very big political risk. Being chosen primarily because of his promise to a better economy, he can’t break that now. But the massive trade war he created will be very hard on the American economy, probably even harder than on that of Europe. The people who will feel that are the common Americans, who are his electorate. What is Trump’s plan here? Will he lose his stronghold on the American people, will they lose trust in him? Or is he not concerned with that at all, since he is not a democrat? Also, Russia seems to be exempt from the tariffs that have struck almost any other country. What should we infer from that? 

About the speakers

Gerry van der Kamp-Alons is a political scientist at uu77, specialized in International Relations. Her research focuses on how and when ideational variables such as norms, policy frames and policy paradigms influence states' preferences and their foreign policies. 

Frank Bohn is a political economist at uu77 specialized in International economics and Political economy. His research focuses, among others, on democratic backsliding and sanctions, as well as political budget cycles and monetary and fiscal policies.